Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 0.495218 0.574952 0.660862 0.760002 0.870940 0.990935 1.130216
2025-04-06 0.371073 0.473248 0.591581 0.737613 0.911765 1.111551 1.356746
2025-04-13 0.277404 0.388669 0.527006 0.709000 0.939223 1.217724 1.576721
2025-04-20 0.219026 0.336779 0.493626 0.712798 1.005472 1.376745 1.876374
2025-04-27 0.169190 0.286816 0.455009 0.704650 1.056070 1.522515 2.175977
2025-05-04 0.134188 0.250952 0.430012 0.711611 1.128068 1.704228 2.541116
2025-05-11 0.105411 0.218331 0.404291 0.713989 1.194384 1.885634 2.924116
2025-05-18 0.076781 0.178603 0.360101 0.681643 1.206103 1.991980 3.213726
2025-05-25 0.053995 0.142701 0.314823 0.639979 1.198010 2.068513 3.467802
2025-06-01 0.040593 0.121283 0.290787 0.630209 1.239561 2.223925 3.852133
2025-06-08 0.030064 0.102347 0.267190 0.617183 1.273932 2.371250 4.236377
2025-06-15 0.024447 0.093396 0.262139 0.638398 1.370497 2.627441 4.810749
2025-06-22 0.016930 0.075966 0.234939 0.612992 1.383704 2.753321 5.197818
2025-06-29 0.012135 0.063966 0.217027 0.603609 1.426013 2.933413 5.689391
2025-07-06 0.008357 0.052750 0.197536 0.586924 1.452079 3.087838 6.150756
2025-07-13 0.006284 0.046639 0.190038 0.596552 1.532557 3.347282 6.810873
2025-07-20 0.004480 0.040010 0.178737 0.594761 1.589134 3.567722 7.418670
2025-07-27 0.003328 0.035529 0.172671 0.605234 1.673742 3.848387 8.152896
2025-08-03 0.002402 0.031170 0.165360 0.610991 1.748713 4.116599 8.881900
2025-08-10 0.001468 0.024936 0.148250 0.585451 1.748466 4.236429 9.345380
2025-08-17 0.000814 0.019202 0.129787 0.550979 1.721780 4.300029 9.706977
2025-08-24 0.000509 0.016106 0.121012 0.544222 1.761992 4.504577 10.349850
2025-08-31 0.000301 0.013321 0.111956 0.534204 1.792507 4.690818 10.967920